According to a 2017 report by the conservative think tank Heritage Foundation, nations allied with the United States have more than 6 million people in a total military population and account for more than 60% of global defense spending (over $1 trillion). In the map below, you will find the troop counts of each American ally listed in the collective defense contracts of the MINISTER OF FOREIGN AFFAIRES. Overall, the FE`s estimates strongly support the assumptions, including the proposed causal mechanism. Not only do network influences stimulate DCA formation, but these influences disappear in Dyads with existing DIACs. Figure 10 shows the predictive margins of network variables in both samples, based on the estimates presented in Figure 9. With low levels of reciprocal levels, the probability of countries signing a first DCA is virtually nil. If the reciprocal degree reaches its median value, the probability of a first DCA is close to 75%. But for subsequent chords, designated by the dotted line (red), the degree of reciprocity is virtually irrelevant. Both lanes have an equally dramatic effect. With the minimum value of two lanes, the probability of a first DCA is about 25%.
If two paths reach their median value, this probability increases to almost 75%. And as in the case of a reciprocal degree, the effect of two-way agreements on subsequent agreements is virtually nil. These content forecasts confirm the conclusion that network flows depend on information mechanisms and are not false compared to omitted variables. However, Figures 6 and 7 say little about the mechanisms. The most plausible alternative to the proposed information mechanism is that network flows are actually fuelled by common benefits. For example, a country`s node may be epiphenomatic for the size of its defense industry or for another attractive attribute. In this context, connections to the network can create externalities that encourage further cooperation, a phenomenon found in other international relations. Footnote 106 In the European historical context, a military alliance can be considered as a league between independent states defined by the Treaty to achieve common actions, defence or offensive, or both. The oldest alliance of its kind in today`s world is the Anglo-Portuguese alliance of 1373, where the kingdoms of the time, England and Portugal, committed themselves to «eternal friendship» between the two countries. This is still the case today between the current United Kingdom and Portugal, and these two countries did not fight against each other in a military campaign.